Adaptation & Resilience
Problem Overview: Heat stress causing mortality and low productivity, while cooling strains the grid
Cooling in India sits at the intersection of two forces pulling in the opposite direction: it is the fastest growing source of electricity demand on the grid causing higher emissions and is simultaneously a survival necessity for populations already dying from heat. India must navigate both simultaneously, at scale, across populations with wildly different incomes, geographies, and infrastructure realities.
A single five-day heatwave leads to approximately 30,000 excess deaths across rural and urban districts, yet government heat mortality figures lack the intelligence to calculate these numbers. On the emissions side: room ACs already account for 60-70 GW, nearly a quarter of India's peak electricity demand, and without stricter efficiency standards, AC-driven peak demand could surge to 120 GW by 2030 and 180 GW by 2035 - more than one-third of the country's projected evening peak load.
Core Bottlenecks: Energy inefficient, emitting and expensive
1. Waste heat island effect
AC waste heat is released directly into street-level air, warming the microclimate and increasing the cooling load of neighbouring buildings, making cities hot.
2. Night-time loads are rising
As solar generation drops after sunset, the grid must rapidly scale up with energy storage to meet sustained cooling loads into the night. Rising nighttime temperatures mean buildings cannot cool down between midnight and dawn, keeping cooling loads elevated through what was historically an off-peak period.
3. Efficiency gaps for residential and C&I
BEE’s new standards could avoid peak demand of 47 GW by 2035 and newer, efficient AC technologies could come in but this only affects newer purchases. Existing base of 110 mn ACs is locked in. Most commercial buildings operate uncontrolled 3-star VRF or split AC systems with no building management integration, no sub-metering, and no occupancy sensing.
4. Low rural AC ownership
High costs and grid unreliability still inhibit AC penetration in rural areas.
Existing Approaches and Technology Readiness
Vapor compression systems
More efficient inverters, heat exchangers and low GWP refrigerants
Dessicant cooling
Removing moisture from air before cooling it, taking away latent heat load
Sorption cooling
Absorption chiller using refrigerant and absorbent; input energy is heat
Solid state cooling
Magnetocaloric, thermoelectric, elastocaloric and barocaloric mechanisms
Where is the white-space for innovation?
Science Breakthrough
A multitude of cooling technologies exist which can be made more energy-efficient through materials or process innovation
Engineering
Building cost-effective processes or equipment which can revolutionise already existing vapor compression systems
Business Model / Operation
Exploring cooling-as-a-service; training technicians on AMC for newer/more efficient technologies as well as handling gas leaks.
Financial Innovation
AC under-penetration due to its upfront cost in India needs to be solved for mainly in rural areas. Financing for refrigerant management also needs to be unlocked.
How we identify climate innovation opportunities?
- IEA data
- IECC and UC Berkeley working paper
- Elnagar, E., et al. (2023). A comprehensive scouting of space cooling technologies in Europe: Key characteristics and development trends. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 186, 113636.
- India’s journey towards sustainable building cooling
- Calculated based on 20% market penetration of efficient cooling
- Calculated based on 20% market penetration of 50% efficient cooling
Last Updated On: June 5, 2026
Economic Potential
- India, 20251500Mn USD[5]
- India, 20303950Mn USD
- Global, 202530500Mn USD[5]
Impact Potential
- India, 202512 Mn Mt CO2e[6]
- India, 203033 Mn Mt CO2e/year
- Global, 2025100 Mn Mt CO2e/year [6]
- Lives Impacted~1000 Mn people (Lack Access To Cooling Solutions)
- Risk Index India12.5/27
- Hazard
- Exposure
- Sensitivity
- Adaptive Capacity
- Vulnerability
| Low | Med | High |
|---|---|---|
 |
||
| |
||
| |
||
| |
||
| |
Livelihoods
Connectivity
p-ARL Score
10/12
Spotlight for innovation in India
Research
IISc Bangalore: Heat Transfer and Energy Systems Lab spearheading next-gen sorption cooling
Optimist: Retains 96% cooling capacity at 50 C and lowers electricity bills by 25-35%
Uses evaporative and adiabatic cooling and lowers energy consumption by 80%